We review a strong end of the year for risk assets, boosted by the phase one US/China trade deal and further monetary stimulus from China. With geopolitical tensions potentially rising, we conclude with thoughts for the markets in 2020.
A landslide victory for Boris Johnson’s Conservative party has provoked a positive response from sterling and many UK asset classes. We look at these initial reactions and consider broader implications for asset allocation in 2020.
This month, we’ve moved from a moderate underweight to a neutral position in equities. In fixed income, we have increased our US duration from a neutral position to a moderate overweight position and reduced high yield from moderate overweight to neutral.
Delays to signing phase one of the US/China trade deal have had differing impacts on sentiment in Europe and the emerging markets. We also discuss the possible repercussions of elections in Hong Kong over the weekend.
A strong week for US equities did not carry over into global markets, in this week's podcast our expert panel look at headwinds in Asia and Europe and examine why high yield bond markets have lagged the recent equity rally.
With US markets hitting all-time highs, in this week's podcast our expert panel look at company earnings forecasts. A trade truce could bring better economic growth prospects- good for equity markets, perhaps not so good for government bond markets.
Our expert panel discuss last week's US Federal Reserve interest rates cut, and the suggested pause before any further cuts. We look at the improving prospects for US growth and the implications for Emerging Markets, before turning to sterling in the light of Brexit and General Election developments.
Our expert panel look for trends in the US earnings reports and reasons for the strength of Japanese equities this year. As markets seem convinced of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this week, we consider whether the Fed has recently quietly relaunched a sizeable QE programme.
Despite a lack of resolution on the latest Brexit deal, the markets are reflecting a reduced risk of a no-deal Brexit. In this week's podcast our expert panel discuss our tactical response, then move on to our view on commodities, in the light of weaker data from China.